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๐Ÿ“ก

Business

Telecommunications

The mobile carriers and cable companies that connect every phone, home, and business to the internet.

At a glance

US telecom revenue

โ‰ˆ $500B / yr

US mobile lines

โ‰ˆ 380M

Big 3 mobile share

AT&T + Verizon + T-Mobile โ‰ˆ 95%

Typical dividend yield

โ‰ˆ 5-7%

Step 1

What this business actually is

Telecom companies build and operate the wires, cell towers, and fiber networks that carry voice and internet traffic. They sell access to that network as monthly subscriptions โ€” mobile plans, home broadband, business circuits.

It's a heavy-infrastructure business. Building a national network costs tens of billions. Once it's built, the marginal cost of adding a customer is small. That's why it's a few big players, not many.

๐Ÿ“ถ

Built once. Rented forever.

Step 2

How a mobile carrier actually works

Build cell towers and fiber connecting them. License spectrum from the government (expensive). Sell SIM cards and plans. Maintain the network.

Most of the cost is upfront infrastructure. The trick is getting enough monthly subscribers to pay for it.

๐Ÿ“ปSpectrum
โ†’
๐Ÿ—ผTowers
โ†’
๐ŸงตFiber
โ†’
๐Ÿง‘Customers

Step 3

Where the money comes from

Mostly monthly recurring revenue. Mobile plans (the big one), home internet, business circuits, fiber to towers (selling backhaul to other carriers).

Increasingly: bundling. Combining wireless + home internet + streaming services into one bill, which keeps customers from switching.

๐Ÿง‘

Subscribers pay monthly

โ†’
๐Ÿข

Carrier collects fees

โ†’
โš™๏ธ

Towers + fiber + spectrum

Step 4

Why margins are stable but growth is slow

Telecom is a near-saturated market. Everyone already has a phone and home internet. New customers come mostly from stealing from competitors โ€” which means heavy promotional spending.

The good news: customers rarely cancel. Churn is low, cash flow is steady, dividends are huge. The bad news: pricing power is limited and growth depends on convincing people to pay more for faster service (5G, fiber).

Roughly where the money goes

Mobile
50%
Home internet
25%
Business
20%
Other
5%

Step 5

Mobile carriers vs cable

Mobile carriers (Verizon, AT&T, T-Mobile) sell wireless plans. T-Mobile has been the fastest grower in recent years.

Cable companies (Comcast, Charter) sell home internet and TV, increasingly bundled with mobile service that rides on a wireless partner's network.

๐Ÿ“ฑMobile
vs
๐Ÿ“บCable

Two converging models

Step 6

Risks worth knowing

Heavy debt loads โ€” most carriers carry $100B+ in debt to fund networks. Rising rates make that more expensive. Cord-cutting from cable TV. And the threat of Starlink or other satellite internet entering urban markets eventually.

Regulation around net neutrality and spectrum auctions also matters. And the 5G/fiber buildout is far from done.

๐Ÿ’ธHigh debt
โœ‚๏ธCord-cutting
๐Ÿ›ฐ๏ธStarlink
๐Ÿ’ฐSpectrum auctions

Different conditions

How telecommunications performs in different scenarios

Most industries behave very differently depending on the economy. Here's how this one has historically responded to common macro situations.

Recession
Holds up

People rarely cancel their phone or internet. Telecom is among the most defensive consumer services.

Verizon was one of the few S&P 500 stocks with positive returns in 2008.

High Fed rates
Gets hit

Massive debt loads. Refinancing at higher rates eats into cash flow that funds the dividend.

AT&T cut its dividend in 2022 for the first time in decades during the rate hike cycle.

Low Fed rates
Holds up

Cheap debt funds networks. High-dividend stocks become more attractive vs. low bond yields.

High inflation
Mixed

Telecom plans rarely keep up with inflation. Costs (energy, labor, equipment) rise more than revenue.

Two ways to gain exposure

A thematic ETF, or individual companies

People who want exposure to telecommunications usually either own a single ETF that bundles many companies together, or own a few individual stocks. They just spread the decision differently โ€” neither approach is described here as better than the other.

See live performance

How telecom companies are doing today, on the Themes page.

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