Cars are one of the biggest things people put off in a downturn. Demand falls sharply, and unsold inventory piles up.
US auto sales fell from 17M (2007) to 10M (2009) in the Great Recession.
Business
The world's biggest mass-market industry, in the middle of a generational shift from gasoline to batteries.
At a glance
Cars sold / year
โ 90M worldwide
Industry size
โ $3T / yr
EV share (2024)
โ 18% of new sales
Largest by units
Toyota
Step 1
Car companies design vehicles, run factories that build them, and sell them through dealers (or, increasingly, online). About 90 million cars are sold every year worldwide. It's one of the largest industries on the planet.
Today the industry is splitting in two. Traditional car makers (Toyota, Volkswagen, Ford, GM) and pure-electric upstarts (Tesla, BYD, NIO). Both are racing toward the same destination: most new cars sold will run on batteries within 15 years.
Gas to battery โ a once-a-century shift
Step 2
Designing and assembling a car is only part of the work. The rest is a vast supplier network: steel, aluminum, plastics, glass, chips, batteries, tires.
Car makers don't usually make all of those โ they buy them and assemble them. That's why a chip shortage or a battery shortage can stop the whole industry.
Step 3
Selling the car is only the start. Many car companies also make money financing the loan, selling the warranty, and over time, selling parts and service.
Tesla and a few others now also charge for software (autopilot, supercharging). That recurring revenue is small today but is the model investors are most excited about.
Buyer pays sticker
Maker + dealer + financing
Parts + factory + labor
Step 4
Even profitable car makers usually keep about 5-10 cents of every sales dollar as profit. Software companies can keep 20-30. That's because cars need expensive parts, expensive labor, and expensive factories that have to run nearly full to make money.
This is also why electric vehicles are so disruptive. EVs have fewer moving parts, so margins can be higher โ but only if you sell enough of them to spread the factory cost.
Roughly where the money goes
Step 5
Traditional car makers know how to build at scale and have decades of supplier relationships. They're slower to change but harder to kill.
EV-first companies (Tesla, BYD) move faster, control software better, and own more of the value chain โ but they're newer, smaller, and burning cash to scale.
Both still competing
Step 6
Recessions hit car companies hard โ people delay buying cars when their job feels shaky. Battery costs and supply chains (lithium, nickel, cobalt) are concentrated and politically sensitive.
Self-driving keeps slipping โ every "by next year" promise has been wrong for a decade. And Chinese EV makers (especially BYD) are now cheaper and arguably better, threatening Western brands in their home markets.
Different conditions
Most industries behave very differently depending on the economy. Here's how this one has historically responded to common macro situations.
Cars are one of the biggest things people put off in a downturn. Demand falls sharply, and unsold inventory piles up.
US auto sales fell from 17M (2007) to 10M (2009) in the Great Recession.
Most cars are bought with a loan. Higher rates push monthly payments up and many buyers walk away from showrooms.
US car-loan rates near 9% in 2024 helped slow auto demand even with low unemployment.
Cheap financing makes the same car feel affordable. Both buyers and EV-startup capex benefit.
Steel, aluminum, batteries, and labor costs all rise. Automakers can't always pass it all on to buyers.
2021-2022 chip + battery shortages plus inflation crushed margins industry-wide.
Two ways to gain exposure
People who want exposure to cars & electric vehicles usually either own a single ETF that bundles many companies together, or own a few individual stocks. They just spread the decision differently โ neither approach is described here as better than the other.
See live performance
How auto & ev companies are doing today, on the Themes page.
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