Oil prices typically rise with inflation. Drillers' revenue scales directly with the oil price while their costs lag.
1970s oil crisis: energy was the only S&P 500 sector with positive real returns.
Business
Oil, gas, and renewables — the businesses that power everything else.
At a glance
Industry size
≈ $7T / yr (oil + gas + power)
Daily oil demand
≈ 100M barrels / day
Renewables share
≈ 30% of new power adds
Biggest oil major
Saudi Aramco · $1.6T+
Step 1
Energy companies dig oil and gas out of the ground, refine it into fuels and chemicals, and sell it. A smaller, faster-growing slice builds solar panels, wind turbines, and the grid that connects them.
Every economy runs on energy. When growth picks up, demand picks up; when growth slows, so does energy. That's why oil prices and the stock market often move together.
Powers everything else
Step 2
Oil moves through a chain: drilling it out of the ground, transporting it through pipelines or tankers, refining it into gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel, then selling it at gas stations or to industry.
Different companies specialize in different links. "Integrated" majors like ExxonMobil and Chevron do all of them. "Pure-play" producers only drill. "Midstream" companies only move the stuff.
Step 3
Mostly from selling oil, gas, and refined fuels at whatever the global market price happens to be that day. When oil is at $100, energy companies print money. At $40, many lose it.
Renewables work differently — utilities sign 10-20 year contracts at fixed prices. Steadier income, but smaller upside than a barrel of oil at $150.
Global oil price
Driller + refiner share
Drilling + transport
Step 4
Oil prices are set globally and depend on supply (OPEC, US shale, sanctions, war) and demand (the economy, the weather, technology). A handful of decisions in Saudi Arabia or the White House can move the price 30% in a month.
Energy stocks ride those swings. In the best years they outperform every other sector. In the worst, they're cut in half.
Roughly where the money goes
Step 5
Oil and gas companies generate huge cash flows today but face a long-term wind-down as the world electrifies.
Renewable energy companies (solar, wind, grid) are growing faster but most don't yet print the cash that oil majors do. Many long-term investors hold both.
Cash today vs growth tomorrow
Step 6
Oil price crashes (2014, 2020). Geopolitics — wars, OPEC decisions, sanctions. Climate regulation that makes drilling more expensive or restricts where it can happen. And the long-term trend of electrification eating into demand for gasoline.
On the upside, the energy transition itself is a multi-decade build-out. Whoever supplies copper, lithium, grid equipment, and storage will be busy for a long time.
Different conditions
Most industries behave very differently depending on the economy. Here's how this one has historically responded to common macro situations.
Oil prices typically rise with inflation. Drillers' revenue scales directly with the oil price while their costs lag.
1970s oil crisis: energy was the only S&P 500 sector with positive real returns.
Geopolitical tension in oil-producing regions pushes prices up. Energy stocks usually rally on Middle East flare-ups.
1973 Yom Kippur war oil embargo; 2022 Russia-Ukraine drove WTI past $120.
Less driving, less flying, less factory output — demand falls and oil prices follow.
2008 oil collapsed from $147 to $35; 2020 briefly went negative.
When oil is cheap (e.g. OPEC oversupply), drillers' revenue collapses but their fixed costs stay. Many small US shale producers went bankrupt in 2015-16 and 2020.
Oil is priced in dollars worldwide. A stronger dollar makes oil more expensive for foreign buyers, hurting demand.
Two ways to gain exposure
People who want exposure to energy usually either own a single ETF that bundles many companies together, or own a few individual stocks. They just spread the decision differently — neither approach is described here as better than the other.
Thematic ETFs
New to ETFs? See how they work.
See live performance
How energy companies are doing today, on the Themes page.
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