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Business

Food & beverage

Coca-Cola, Pepsi, Nestlé, McDonald's — boring, profitable companies that show up in nearly every kitchen on Earth.

At a glance

Global packaged food industry

≈ $4T / yr

Biggest food company

Nestlé · $300B+ mkt cap

Coca-Cola products / day

≈ 2.2 billion

Typical operating margin

≈ 15-25%

Step 1

What this business actually is

Food and beverage companies produce or assemble things people eat and drink, then sell them through grocery stores, restaurants, and increasingly online. Some make ingredients others use; some operate restaurants directly.

These businesses have been around for over a century, and many of the biggest brands today (Coca-Cola, Hershey, Kellogg's) were founded before 1900.

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Old brands. Big moats. Steady demand.

Step 2

How a soda actually reaches you

Coke makes the concentrated syrup at its plants. Sells the syrup to bottlers (often independent companies) who mix it with water, fizz, and bottle it. Bottlers deliver to stores and restaurants. You buy.

This is unusual — the brand owner doesn't actually own most of the manufacturing and distribution. Coca-Cola Company gets a cut from licensing the recipe and brand to thousands of bottlers worldwide.

🏷️Brand
🏭Make
🏪Store
😋You eat

Step 3

Where the money comes from

Selling food and drinks at the small margin between input cost (sugar, corn, milk, packaging) and what supermarkets pay. The brands that win command higher prices and shelf space — supermarkets carry Coke not Generic Cola.

Restaurants (McDonald's, Starbucks) are different — they franchise the brand to operators who pay royalties on every sale.

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Shoppers + diners pay

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Brand + retailer share

⚙️

Ingredients + packaging

Step 4

Why brands matter so much

A supermarket has 30,000 products. Customers don't have time to evaluate each one. Brands are mental shortcuts — Coke means you know what you're getting.

Once a brand is established, it becomes incredibly hard to dislodge. New entrants have to spend billions on marketing just to be noticed. This is the moat that makes food companies safe.

Roughly where the money goes

Ingredients
40%
Packaging
15%
Marketing
15%
Profit
30%

Step 5

Packaged food vs restaurants

Packaged food (Nestlé, Kraft Heinz, General Mills) sells through stores. Steady demand, less labor exposure.

Restaurants (McDonald's, Starbucks, Chipotle) sell prepared meals directly. More labor and rent exposure but higher growth potential and more brand intimacy.

🛒Packaged
vs
🍔Restaurants

Steady vs operating-heavy

Step 6

Risks worth knowing

Health trends — sugar taxes, weight-loss drugs (GLP-1s like Ozempic are reducing demand for soda and snacks), shifts away from processed food.

Commodity prices (sugar, corn, coffee, cocoa). Currency moves for global brands. And generational shifts — Gen Z buys Coke less than Gen X did.

🥗Health trends
💊GLP-1 drugs
📊Commodities
💱Currencies

Different conditions

How food & beverage performs in different scenarios

Most industries behave very differently depending on the economy. Here's how this one has historically responded to common macro situations.

Recession
Holds up

People still eat and drink. Cheap snacks and McDonald's actually do better as consumers trade down from premium options.

Coca-Cola, PepsiCo, McDonald's all outperformed the S&P 500 in 2008.

High inflation
Holds up

Strong brands pass cost increases on to consumers. People still buy Coca-Cola at a higher price.

PepsiCo grew earnings 16% in 2022 while inflation peaked.

High Fed rates
Mixed

Steady cash flows and modest debt. Less affected than most sectors, though valuation multiples can compress.

Strong dollar
Gets hit

Coca-Cola, Nestlé, and Mondelez earn most of their revenue overseas. A strong dollar shrinks dollar-reported profits.

Two ways to gain exposure

A thematic ETF, or individual companies

People who want exposure to food & beverage usually either own a single ETF that bundles many companies together, or own a few individual stocks. They just spread the decision differently — neither approach is described here as better than the other.

See live performance

How food & beverage companies are doing today, on the Themes page.

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