People still eat and drink. Cheap snacks and McDonald's actually do better as consumers trade down from premium options.
Coca-Cola, PepsiCo, McDonald's all outperformed the S&P 500 in 2008.
Business
Coca-Cola, Pepsi, Nestlé, McDonald's — boring, profitable companies that show up in nearly every kitchen on Earth.
At a glance
Global packaged food industry
≈ $4T / yr
Biggest food company
Nestlé · $300B+ mkt cap
Coca-Cola products / day
≈ 2.2 billion
Typical operating margin
≈ 15-25%
Step 1
Food and beverage companies produce or assemble things people eat and drink, then sell them through grocery stores, restaurants, and increasingly online. Some make ingredients others use; some operate restaurants directly.
These businesses have been around for over a century, and many of the biggest brands today (Coca-Cola, Hershey, Kellogg's) were founded before 1900.
Old brands. Big moats. Steady demand.
Step 2
Coke makes the concentrated syrup at its plants. Sells the syrup to bottlers (often independent companies) who mix it with water, fizz, and bottle it. Bottlers deliver to stores and restaurants. You buy.
This is unusual — the brand owner doesn't actually own most of the manufacturing and distribution. Coca-Cola Company gets a cut from licensing the recipe and brand to thousands of bottlers worldwide.
Step 3
Selling food and drinks at the small margin between input cost (sugar, corn, milk, packaging) and what supermarkets pay. The brands that win command higher prices and shelf space — supermarkets carry Coke not Generic Cola.
Restaurants (McDonald's, Starbucks) are different — they franchise the brand to operators who pay royalties on every sale.
Shoppers + diners pay
Brand + retailer share
Ingredients + packaging
Step 4
A supermarket has 30,000 products. Customers don't have time to evaluate each one. Brands are mental shortcuts — Coke means you know what you're getting.
Once a brand is established, it becomes incredibly hard to dislodge. New entrants have to spend billions on marketing just to be noticed. This is the moat that makes food companies safe.
Roughly where the money goes
Step 5
Packaged food (Nestlé, Kraft Heinz, General Mills) sells through stores. Steady demand, less labor exposure.
Restaurants (McDonald's, Starbucks, Chipotle) sell prepared meals directly. More labor and rent exposure but higher growth potential and more brand intimacy.
Steady vs operating-heavy
Step 6
Health trends — sugar taxes, weight-loss drugs (GLP-1s like Ozempic are reducing demand for soda and snacks), shifts away from processed food.
Commodity prices (sugar, corn, coffee, cocoa). Currency moves for global brands. And generational shifts — Gen Z buys Coke less than Gen X did.
Different conditions
Most industries behave very differently depending on the economy. Here's how this one has historically responded to common macro situations.
People still eat and drink. Cheap snacks and McDonald's actually do better as consumers trade down from premium options.
Coca-Cola, PepsiCo, McDonald's all outperformed the S&P 500 in 2008.
Strong brands pass cost increases on to consumers. People still buy Coca-Cola at a higher price.
PepsiCo grew earnings 16% in 2022 while inflation peaked.
Steady cash flows and modest debt. Less affected than most sectors, though valuation multiples can compress.
Coca-Cola, Nestlé, and Mondelez earn most of their revenue overseas. A strong dollar shrinks dollar-reported profits.
Two ways to gain exposure
People who want exposure to food & beverage usually either own a single ETF that bundles many companies together, or own a few individual stocks. They just spread the decision differently — neither approach is described here as better than the other.
See live performance
How food & beverage companies are doing today, on the Themes page.
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