People always need to eat. Grocery actually benefits as consumers shift away from restaurants. Walmart and Costco gain share.
Walmart, Costco, and Kroger all outperformed the S&P 500 in 2008.
Business
Razor-thin margins on enormous volume — and one of the most predictable, recession-resistant businesses around.
At a glance
US grocery industry
≈ $850B / yr
Biggest player
Walmart · ~$650B revenue
Typical net margin
≈ 1-3%
Costco membership renewal
≈ 93%
Step 1
Supermarkets buy food, household goods, and groceries in huge quantities, then sell them to consumers at a small markup. The profit per item is tiny — pennies on a can of soup — but they sell billions of items.
Most people shop at one of just a handful of chains. The biggest in the US: Walmart, Kroger, Costco, Albertsons, Whole Foods (Amazon).
Thin margins × huge volume
Step 2
Buy products from food manufacturers (Coke, Nestlé, Kraft) and farmers. Move them through massive distribution centers. Stock the shelves. Sell at a small markup.
Modern grocers also operate private-label brands ("store brands" like Kirkland at Costco, Great Value at Walmart) where they make a much higher margin since they cut out the middleman brand.
Step 3
Selling food and household goods at a thin markup. Private-label brands at higher margins. Pharmacy. Fuel (many large grocers operate gas stations). Online delivery and pickup fees.
Costco is unusual — most of its actual profit comes from membership fees, not from selling products. That's the secret to its consistency.
Shoppers pay
Tiny markup per item
Inventory + labor + rent
Step 4
The bigger you are, the better deals you can negotiate from suppliers. Walmart and Costco can pressure brands to give them special pricing that small grocers can't get.
Scale also helps with distribution costs, technology investments, and private-label development. This is why the industry keeps consolidating.
Roughly where the money goes
Step 5
Traditional grocers (Kroger, Albertsons) compete on convenience, location, and product variety. Lower margins per item, higher volume per store.
Warehouse clubs (Costco, Sam's Club) sell in bulk at deep discounts and charge membership fees. Higher per-customer revenue, longer shopping trips, very loyal customers.
Convenience vs bulk
Step 6
Food and labor inflation can outpace what stores can charge. Online competition (Amazon, Instacart). Labor unions and wage pressure. Shoplifting (a real and growing issue).
And weight-loss drugs may eventually reduce snack and processed-food demand — though so far the effect on grocery revenue is small.
Different conditions
Most industries behave very differently depending on the economy. Here's how this one has historically responded to common macro situations.
People always need to eat. Grocery actually benefits as consumers shift away from restaurants. Walmart and Costco gain share.
Walmart, Costco, and Kroger all outperformed the S&P 500 in 2008.
Mixed. Higher food prices boost dollar revenues but consumers downtrade to cheaper brands and stores. Walmart and Costco win; premium grocers lose.
2022-2023 saw Walmart and Costco gain meaningful share from premium grocers.
Cheaper diesel for delivery fleets and cheaper gas at in-store stations help margins. Consumers also have more disposable income.
Steady cash flow, modest debt. Less affected than most sectors, though valuation multiples can compress.
Two ways to gain exposure
People who want exposure to supermarkets usually either own a single ETF that bundles many companies together, or own a few individual stocks. They just spread the decision differently — neither approach is described here as better than the other.
See live performance
How supermarket & grocery retailers are doing today, on the Themes page.
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