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Business

Banking

Banks take deposits, lend them out at higher rates, and try to keep the difference — a 400-year-old business model.

At a glance

US banking system size

≈ $24T in assets

Biggest US bank

JPMorgan · ~$4T assets

Typical net interest margin

≈ 3%

US bank failures (2008-09)

≈ 165

Step 1

What this business actually is

A bank takes money from people who have extra (your deposits) and lends it to people who need it (mortgages, car loans, business loans). The bank pays you a small interest rate and charges borrowers a bigger one. The gap is its profit.

Modern banks also handle payments, run credit cards, provide investment advice, and trade securities. But the deposit-and-lend core is still where most banks make most of their money.

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Take low. Lend high. Keep the gap.

Step 2

How a bank actually works

You deposit $100. The bank keeps maybe $10 in reserve and lends out $90 to someone buying a car. That person pays the bank back over time with interest.

Banks repeat this thousands of times a day. The key constraint is that depositors can ask for their money back any time, but the loans take years to be repaid. Managing that mismatch is the job.

🧑Depositors
🏦Bank
🏠Borrowers
💵Interest back

Step 3

Where the money comes from

Three main buckets. Net interest income (the rate gap above) — usually 50-70% of revenue. Fees — cards, wealth management, account services. And trading + investment banking — only matters for the biggest banks like JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs.

The mix tells you a lot about a bank's character. Regional banks live and die on net interest. Big universal banks are diversified across all three.

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Borrowers pay rate

🏢

Bank keeps the spread

⚙️

Interest to depositors

Step 4

Why interest rates are everything

When the Federal Reserve raises interest rates, banks can charge borrowers more — and they tend to raise loan rates faster than they raise deposit rates. So in a rising-rate environment, the spread widens and banks make more money.

When rates fall, the opposite happens — but banks also tend to have more business as borrowing becomes cheap. Either way, what kills a bank isn't the level of rates, it's a sudden jump in either direction.

Roughly where the money goes

Net interest
55%
Card + service fees
25%
Trading + IB
15%
Other
5%

Step 5

Big banks vs regional banks

Big universal banks (JPMorgan, Bank of America, Citi) are diversified across consumer, wealth, trading, and investment banking. Tougher to disrupt but slower to grow.

Regional banks (PNC, Truist, US Bank) are simpler — mostly local deposits and lending. Higher growth but more exposed to one region's economy and to interest-rate swings.

🏛️Universal
vs
🏪Regional

Diversification vs concentration

Step 6

Risks worth knowing

Bank runs — depositors yanking money all at once — can kill an otherwise healthy bank in days. Silicon Valley Bank failed in 36 hours in March 2023 for exactly this reason.

Loan losses in a recession. Regulatory crackdowns after crises. And interest-rate moves that are too fast in either direction. Banking is a high-leverage business: a small change in any of these can wipe out years of profit.

🏃Bank runs
📉Loan losses
⚖️Regulation
Rate shocks

Different conditions

How banking performs in different scenarios

Most industries behave very differently depending on the economy. Here's how this one has historically responded to common macro situations.

High Fed rates
Holds up

Rising rates usually widen the gap between what banks earn on loans and what they pay on deposits. Net interest income jumps.

2022-2023 banks reported some of their best net-interest-income years ever — even as everything else got harder.

Low Fed rates
Gets hit

When rates fall, the spread between lending and deposit rates compresses. Banks can offset with more lending volume but margins are thinner.

Recession
Gets hit

Borrowers default. Loan losses spike. Banks must set aside huge reserves, which directly hits earnings.

JPMorgan's 2009 net income fell 70% from peak as loan losses tripled.

High inflation
Mixed

Mixed. Higher rates that come with inflation help margins, but operating costs and loan losses can offset that.

Two ways to gain exposure

A thematic ETF, or individual companies

People who want exposure to banking usually either own a single ETF that bundles many companies together, or own a few individual stocks. They just spread the decision differently — neither approach is described here as better than the other.

See live performance

How banks & financial firms are doing today, on the Themes page.

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