Rising rates usually widen the gap between what banks earn on loans and what they pay on deposits. Net interest income jumps.
2022-2023 banks reported some of their best net-interest-income years ever — even as everything else got harder.
Business
Banks take deposits, lend them out at higher rates, and try to keep the difference — a 400-year-old business model.
At a glance
US banking system size
≈ $24T in assets
Biggest US bank
JPMorgan · ~$4T assets
Typical net interest margin
≈ 3%
US bank failures (2008-09)
≈ 165
Step 1
A bank takes money from people who have extra (your deposits) and lends it to people who need it (mortgages, car loans, business loans). The bank pays you a small interest rate and charges borrowers a bigger one. The gap is its profit.
Modern banks also handle payments, run credit cards, provide investment advice, and trade securities. But the deposit-and-lend core is still where most banks make most of their money.
Take low. Lend high. Keep the gap.
Step 2
You deposit $100. The bank keeps maybe $10 in reserve and lends out $90 to someone buying a car. That person pays the bank back over time with interest.
Banks repeat this thousands of times a day. The key constraint is that depositors can ask for their money back any time, but the loans take years to be repaid. Managing that mismatch is the job.
Step 3
Three main buckets. Net interest income (the rate gap above) — usually 50-70% of revenue. Fees — cards, wealth management, account services. And trading + investment banking — only matters for the biggest banks like JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs.
The mix tells you a lot about a bank's character. Regional banks live and die on net interest. Big universal banks are diversified across all three.
Borrowers pay rate
Bank keeps the spread
Interest to depositors
Step 4
When the Federal Reserve raises interest rates, banks can charge borrowers more — and they tend to raise loan rates faster than they raise deposit rates. So in a rising-rate environment, the spread widens and banks make more money.
When rates fall, the opposite happens — but banks also tend to have more business as borrowing becomes cheap. Either way, what kills a bank isn't the level of rates, it's a sudden jump in either direction.
Roughly where the money goes
Step 5
Big universal banks (JPMorgan, Bank of America, Citi) are diversified across consumer, wealth, trading, and investment banking. Tougher to disrupt but slower to grow.
Regional banks (PNC, Truist, US Bank) are simpler — mostly local deposits and lending. Higher growth but more exposed to one region's economy and to interest-rate swings.
Diversification vs concentration
Step 6
Bank runs — depositors yanking money all at once — can kill an otherwise healthy bank in days. Silicon Valley Bank failed in 36 hours in March 2023 for exactly this reason.
Loan losses in a recession. Regulatory crackdowns after crises. And interest-rate moves that are too fast in either direction. Banking is a high-leverage business: a small change in any of these can wipe out years of profit.
Different conditions
Most industries behave very differently depending on the economy. Here's how this one has historically responded to common macro situations.
Rising rates usually widen the gap between what banks earn on loans and what they pay on deposits. Net interest income jumps.
2022-2023 banks reported some of their best net-interest-income years ever — even as everything else got harder.
When rates fall, the spread between lending and deposit rates compresses. Banks can offset with more lending volume but margins are thinner.
Borrowers default. Loan losses spike. Banks must set aside huge reserves, which directly hits earnings.
JPMorgan's 2009 net income fell 70% from peak as loan losses tripled.
Mixed. Higher rates that come with inflation help margins, but operating costs and loan losses can offset that.
Two ways to gain exposure
People who want exposure to banking usually either own a single ETF that bundles many companies together, or own a few individual stocks. They just spread the decision differently — neither approach is described here as better than the other.
Thematic ETFs
New to ETFs? See how they work.
See live performance
How banks & financial firms are doing today, on the Themes page.
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