Lower consumer spending = fewer transactions = lower revenue. Networks still profitable but growth slows.
Visa and Mastercard fell 20%+ in 2008-09, recovered quickly afterward.
Business
Visa, Mastercard, and the modern fintechs that take a small slice of every electronic dollar that moves.
At a glance
Annual card transactions
โ $50T globally
Visa + Mastercard combined
Process โ 70% of global cards
Typical merchant fee
โ 1.5-3%
Visa operating margin
โ 65%
Step 1
Payments companies sit in the middle of nearly every electronic transaction. When you swipe a card, multiple players take small fees: the network (Visa, Mastercard), the issuing bank (your card's bank), the merchant's payment processor, and sometimes a fintech in between.
It's an enormous tax on commerce that adds up to hundreds of billions a year in fees, mostly invisible to consumers.
Tiny slice. Huge volume.
Step 2
You tap your card. The merchant's processor (Stripe, Square, Worldpay) sends the transaction to the network (Visa or Mastercard). The network checks with your bank. Your bank approves. The merchant gets paid (minus fees).
All of this happens in about 2 seconds, billions of times a day, with multiple companies taking a small cut at each step.
Step 3
Interchange fees โ what merchants pay every transaction, split between banks and networks. Network fees โ Visa and Mastercard charge for using their rails. Processing fees โ Stripe, Square, Adyen charge merchants per transaction.
The networks (Visa, Mastercard) make pure margin because they don't lend money or hold inventory โ they just operate the rails.
Merchants pay fees
Network + processor + bank
Run the rails
Step 4
Visa and Mastercard built networks that everyone else has to use. Building a competing global network would cost tens of billions and decades. Once you have the network, the marginal cost of one more transaction is essentially zero.
Add to that no credit risk (the issuing bank takes that on), no inventory, no factories, and growing volumes โ and you have one of the best business models in the public market.
Roughly where the money goes
Step 5
Networks (Visa, Mastercard, American Express) operate the rails everyone uses. Stable, profitable, growing at ~10% a year.
Fintechs (PayPal, Block, Adyen) sit on top โ they make the user experience better for merchants and consumers. More competitive landscape, more dependent on innovation.
Rails vs apps
Step 6
Regulatory scrutiny โ multiple governments have tried to cap interchange fees. Some have succeeded (EU caps).
Cryptocurrency and central bank digital currencies could route around card networks. Slow-moving threats so far. And recessions reduce transaction volume (fewer purchases) โ though Visa is still less cyclical than most.
Different conditions
Most industries behave very differently depending on the economy. Here's how this one has historically responded to common macro situations.
Lower consumer spending = fewer transactions = lower revenue. Networks still profitable but growth slows.
Visa and Mastercard fell 20%+ in 2008-09, recovered quickly afterward.
Networks earn percentage fees, so when prices rise, fees rise too โ without any new transactions needing to happen.
Visa grew revenue 20%+ during 2022's inflation peak even with slowing volumes.
Visa/Mastercard have minimal debt and don't lend money. But valuation multiples on growth stocks compress when rates rise.
Visa and Mastercard earn nearly half their revenue outside the US. Strong dollar shrinks dollar-reported revenue.
Two ways to gain exposure
People who want exposure to payments usually either own a single ETF that bundles many companies together, or own a few individual stocks. They just spread the decision differently โ neither approach is described here as better than the other.
See live performance
How payment networks & fintech are doing today, on the Themes page.
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