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๐Ÿ’ณ

Business

Payments

Visa, Mastercard, and the modern fintechs that take a small slice of every electronic dollar that moves.

At a glance

Annual card transactions

โ‰ˆ $50T globally

Visa + Mastercard combined

Process โ‰ˆ 70% of global cards

Typical merchant fee

โ‰ˆ 1.5-3%

Visa operating margin

โ‰ˆ 65%

Step 1

What this business actually is

Payments companies sit in the middle of nearly every electronic transaction. When you swipe a card, multiple players take small fees: the network (Visa, Mastercard), the issuing bank (your card's bank), the merchant's payment processor, and sometimes a fintech in between.

It's an enormous tax on commerce that adds up to hundreds of billions a year in fees, mostly invisible to consumers.

๐Ÿ’ณ

Tiny slice. Huge volume.

Step 2

How a payment actually works

You tap your card. The merchant's processor (Stripe, Square, Worldpay) sends the transaction to the network (Visa or Mastercard). The network checks with your bank. Your bank approves. The merchant gets paid (minus fees).

All of this happens in about 2 seconds, billions of times a day, with multiple companies taking a small cut at each step.

๐Ÿ’ณCard tap
โ†’
๐Ÿ’ปProcessor
โ†’
๐ŸŒNetwork
โ†’
๐ŸฆBank approves

Step 3

Where the money comes from

Interchange fees โ€” what merchants pay every transaction, split between banks and networks. Network fees โ€” Visa and Mastercard charge for using their rails. Processing fees โ€” Stripe, Square, Adyen charge merchants per transaction.

The networks (Visa, Mastercard) make pure margin because they don't lend money or hold inventory โ€” they just operate the rails.

๐Ÿง‘

Merchants pay fees

โ†’
๐Ÿข

Network + processor + bank

โ†’
โš™๏ธ

Run the rails

Step 4

Why this business is so good

Visa and Mastercard built networks that everyone else has to use. Building a competing global network would cost tens of billions and decades. Once you have the network, the marginal cost of one more transaction is essentially zero.

Add to that no credit risk (the issuing bank takes that on), no inventory, no factories, and growing volumes โ€” and you have one of the best business models in the public market.

Roughly where the money goes

Tech & operations
20%
Marketing
10%
Other costs
5%
Operating profit
65%

Step 5

Networks vs fintech

Networks (Visa, Mastercard, American Express) operate the rails everyone uses. Stable, profitable, growing at ~10% a year.

Fintechs (PayPal, Block, Adyen) sit on top โ€” they make the user experience better for merchants and consumers. More competitive landscape, more dependent on innovation.

๐ŸŒNetworks
vs
๐Ÿ“ฑFintech

Rails vs apps

Step 6

Risks worth knowing

Regulatory scrutiny โ€” multiple governments have tried to cap interchange fees. Some have succeeded (EU caps).

Cryptocurrency and central bank digital currencies could route around card networks. Slow-moving threats so far. And recessions reduce transaction volume (fewer purchases) โ€” though Visa is still less cyclical than most.

โš–๏ธRegulation
๐Ÿช™Crypto rails
โœ‚๏ธFee caps
๐Ÿ“‰Recession

Different conditions

How payments performs in different scenarios

Most industries behave very differently depending on the economy. Here's how this one has historically responded to common macro situations.

Recession
Gets hit

Lower consumer spending = fewer transactions = lower revenue. Networks still profitable but growth slows.

Visa and Mastercard fell 20%+ in 2008-09, recovered quickly afterward.

High inflation
Holds up

Networks earn percentage fees, so when prices rise, fees rise too โ€” without any new transactions needing to happen.

Visa grew revenue 20%+ during 2022's inflation peak even with slowing volumes.

High Fed rates
Mixed

Visa/Mastercard have minimal debt and don't lend money. But valuation multiples on growth stocks compress when rates rise.

Strong dollar
Gets hit

Visa and Mastercard earn nearly half their revenue outside the US. Strong dollar shrinks dollar-reported revenue.

Two ways to gain exposure

A thematic ETF, or individual companies

People who want exposure to payments usually either own a single ETF that bundles many companies together, or own a few individual stocks. They just spread the decision differently โ€” neither approach is described here as better than the other.

See live performance

How payment networks & fintech are doing today, on the Themes page.

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